Be wary of election predictions based on widespread conventional wisdom

A dictionary definition of conventional wisdom is “a generally accepted theory or belief.” This definition needs a disclaimer: Widespread conventional wisdom in politics is challenged regularly by actual election results that are opposite of predicted election results. We live in an increasingly VUCA world, a world characterized by high levels of Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity. As a result, election outcomes are decided by voters whose behavior on election day and during early voting is unpredictable and subject to change at any time until they cast their vote.