Homicides are down in Baltimore. But gun violence data show reasons to be cautious.

Baltimore is on track to reverse its most deadly trend. If the current pace of fatal shootings holds, it would be the first year since 2018 that the homicide rate went down, not up, and the first year since 2014 with fewer than 300 people killed in the city. The promising development comes despite a troubling and continuing rise in youth gun violence.